WorkersclearupdoghousestobeexportedinafactoryinLinyi,eastChina鈥檚ShandongProvince,onJuly4XINHUAHowhasChina鈥檚foreigntradebeenaffectedonemonthafterthestartofthetradewarwagedbytheUnitedStates?AccordingtothelatestfiguresreleasedbytheGeneralAdministrationofCustoms(GAC)onAugust8,China鈥檚importsandexportstotaled2.6trillionyuan($379billion)inJuly,withgrowthrisingto12.5percentfrom4.3percentamonthbefore,indicatingthatChina鈥檚foreigntradeisyettofeelanyseriouseffectsfromthetradewar.
TradebetweenChinaandtheUnitedStatesstoodat354.72billionyuan($51.71billion)inJuly,anincreaseof5.2percent,remainingstableasthepreviousthreemonths.
AnalystsattributedthesoundtradegrowthinJulytomeasuresaimedatstabilizingtrade,therecoveringglobaleconomy,diversificationofChina鈥檚exportdestinationsandthedepreciationoftherenminbi,buttheyalsowarnedthatChinamayfacemorepressureasthetradewarescalatesandmoretariffsareimplementedinthecomingmonths.
Betterthanexpected
AccordingtotheGACfigures,thetotalvolumeofChina鈥檚tradeingoodsreached16.72trillionyuan($2.44trillion)inthefirstsevenmonthsoftheyear,growing8.6percentyearonyear.Ofthetotal,exportsaccountedfor8.89trillionyuan($1.3trillion)andimportsfor7.83trillionyuan($1.14trillion),upby5percentand12.9percent,respectively,yearonyear.
BaiMing,aseniorresearcherwiththeChineseAcademyofInternationalTradeandEconomicCooperation,saidthattheinternalreasonfortheunexpectedlypositivetradeperformanceinJulywasthatChinaadoptedvariousmeasurestoensurethestablegrowthoftradeandaddresstradefrictions.
鈥淔romoutsideChina,theglobaleconomyandinternationalmarketsarerecovering,tradebetweenChinaanditsmajorpartnersmaintainssoundgrowthandmanyorderswere鈥榬ushedin鈥檅eforetradefrictionsescalated,鈥漵aidBai.
AstradeconfrontationwiththeUnitedStatesintensifies,Chinaispayingmoreattentiontothediversificationofitsexportdestinations,withsalestomarketsotherthantheUnitedStatesgrowingrapidly.
Inthefirstsevenmonthsoftheyear,ChinarealizedgrowthinexportstomajormarketsincludingtheEU,theUnitedStates,ASEANandJapan.ItstradevolumewithcountriesalongtheBeltandRoadtotaled4.57trillionyuan($666.18billion),anincreaseof11.3percentyearonyear,whichwas2.7percentagepointshigherthanthecountry鈥檚foreigntradegrowth;thisaccountedfor27.3percentofChina鈥檚totaltradevolume,whichwas0.7percentagepointshigherthanthesameperiodlastyear.
LiuXuezhi,aseniorresearcherwiththeBankofCommunications,saidthatatpresent,theglobaleconomycontinuestorecoverandtheU.S.economymaintainsrobustgrowth.Recently,theEuropeaneconomyhaskeptstableandpricesarerising,whileemergingmarketsareallgrowing.InJuly,China鈥檚exportstoJapan,ASEAN,IndiaandRussiaallhitdouble-digitgrowthandstoodat12.3percent,15.4percent,14.8percentand11percent,respectively.
AccordingtoBai,theyuan鈥檚depreciationagainsttheU.S.dollarsinceJulyhasactuallystimulatedChina鈥檚exports.Thisismoreapparentinthemonthlyexportdata.Calculatedindollars,thegrowthofChina鈥檚exportsinJulywas1percentagepointhigherthanthatinJune,butcalculatedinrenminbi,growthwasnearly3percentagepointshigherthanthatinthepreviousmonth.InJuly,therenminbidepreciatedby3percentagainsttheU.S.dollar.
Narrowertradesurplus
China鈥檚tradesurpluscontinuestonarrow.Inthefirstsevenmonthsoftheyear,Chinagainedatradesurplusof1.06trillionyuan($154.52billion),adecreaseof30.6percentyearonyear,andinJulyalone,thetradesurplusdecreasedby42.6percentto176.96billionyuan($25.8billion).
BaisaidthatChina鈥檚recentimportgrowthwasfasterthanthegrowthofexportsbecausethescaleofChina鈥檚exportswassobigthatitwasdifficulttomaintaingrowthofthekindseeninpreviousyearsduetoexternalpressure.
鈥淢oreimportantly,ChinahasbeenworkingtoexpandimportsinrecentyearsbycuttingorremovingimporttariffsonsomeproductsandhostingtheChinaInternationalImportExpoinNovember.Allthesemeasureswillfurtherstimulatetherapidgrowthofimports,鈥滲aisaid.
InJuly,China鈥檚importsgrewby20.9percentdenominatedinrenminbi,butthegrowthwasevenhigherat27.3percentifcalculatedinU.S.dollars.AccordingtoLiu,thisindicatesthatChinaenjoysstabledomesticdemand.Thecountry鈥檚macroeconomicpolicyisbecomingmoreproactiveandtherealeconomyisimproving,whichstimulatescorporationstoincreasetheirinventoryanddrivesupimports.
Thereductionofimporttariffshasalsospurredtheimportsofconsumergoods.ChinasignificantlycuttariffsontheimportsofautomobilesandautopartsinJuly.Duringthismonth,theimportsofautomobilesandautomotivechassissurgedby72percent.
LiChao,chiefanalystofmacroeconomicpolicyatHuataiSecurities,saidthatasexportsfaceincreasingpressureandimportscontinuetogrow,China鈥檚tradesurplusislikelytoremainlow,contributinglesstothecountry鈥檚GDPgrowth.Thereductionofthetradesurpluswillalsoincreasedepreciationpressureontherenminbi.
BaisaidthatanarrowertradesurpluswillalsoapplysomepressuretoChina鈥檚foreignexchangereserves.Consideringthebalanceofinternationalpayment,Chinaisnowincreasingtheopennessofitsinvestmentsectorandlocalgovernmentsareworkingtointroducemoreforeigninvestment.
Futurechallenges
ZhangYongjun,aresearcherwiththeChinaCenterforInternationalEconomicExchanges,saidthatthefiguresforJulydepictednosignificantinfluencefromtheSino-U.S.tradewarprincipallybecausetheconflicthasonlyjuststartedandcoincideswiththerecentdepreciationoftherenminbi.
However,thegrowthofexportstotheUnitedStatesinJulyhasbeendestabilizedbyescalatingtradefrictions.
Baisaidthatinrecentmonths,manyChineseexportershavebeenrushinginexports,andastheUnitedStatesannouncedthesecondroundoftariffmeasureson$200billionworthofChineseproducts,moreexportersjoinedintherush.
Althoughthefigureswerestillsteady,Baiemphasizedthatitwouldbeill-advisedtobelievethattheimpactofthetradewarwillbelimited.Therushinexportsandimportshasoverdrawnthepotentialfortradeinthesecondhalfoftheyear,andasthetradewarescalatesandtariffmeasuresareimplemented,Chinamayfaceseriouspressureastradedeclinesinthefuture.
AccordingtoLi,itisverylikelythatChinaandtheUnitedStateswillactuallyimplementtheproposedtariffmeasuresandthattradefrictionswillcontinuetoescalate,whichwillhaveanunfavorableimpactonChina鈥檚exports.
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