Weneedtogetourselvesoutofthesebadheadlinesandhaveourpeoplesitbackandnotworryaboutviolence.Itissomethingeveryonehopesforin2016.
JamesMorgan,SouthSudan’sDeputyAmbassadortoKenya
Thoughanewgovernmentisdelayed,thepeacepactstillholdshopeforembattledSouthSudan
ByAggreyMutambo
Ironically,thewarinSouthSudanthatpittedforcesloyaltoPresidentSalvaKiiragainstthosealliedtoformerFirstVicePresidentRiekMacharnowseestheverymenwhoinitiatedtheconflicttakingontheresponsibilitytoreturnthecountrytopeace.
SouthSudan’swarwasignitedinDecember2013afterKiiraccusedMacharofplottingacoup.Whatfollowedwasaviolentperiodoftit-for-tatmeasuresthatleftthousandsdead,millionsdisplacedanddividedtheworld’syoungestnationalongethniclines.
InJanuary2016,PresidentKiiragreedtoappointnomineesfromthegroupsthathadfoughthisgovernmentinamovethatsignaledthestartofatransitionalgovernment.Allsideswillsharecabinetpostsinthenewgovernmentforabout30months.
ThoughtheinterimgovernmenthadnotbeensetupbyFebruary,stillanalystssaytheannouncementalonesignaled,forthefirsttime,awillingnesstoendthewar.
“Thetransitionalgovernmentisbasicallytoaccommodatepoliticianswholosttheirpositionsinthegovernmentanddecidedtorebeltogainbacktheirformerpositions,”StevePaterno,aresearcheronconflictsinSudan,toldChinAfrica.
Paternosaidthecountrybecamedangerousforciviliansonlywhenthepoliticiansdisagreedwithoneanother,meaningthetransitionalgovernmentcouldsignalawelcomepeaceperiod.
“TherehasneverbeenamajorsecurityincidentinSouthSudan.MinorsecurityincidentspersistintheGreaterEquatoriaregion,but[theyareperpetratedby]bandits,whichshouldnotbeconfusedwith[a]rebellion,”headded,referringtooneoftheregionsincentralSouthSudan.
Humanitariandisaster
TheUnitedNationsOfficefortheCoordinationofHumanitarianAffairssayssinceDecember2013,theconflicthasdisplacedmorethan2.3millionpeopleinSouthSudan.Ofthese,1.69millionweredisplacedinternallyandover648,000arerefugeesinneighboringcountrieslikeKenya,UgandaandEthiopia.
TheInternationalCrisisGroupestimatesthat50,000to100,000peopleacrossSouthSudanwerekilledbetweenDecember2013andNovember2014.Thenumberhasincreasedasfightingcontinuedin2015.
TheAfricanUnionCommissionofInquiryonSouthSudan,chairedbyformerNigerianPresidentOlusegunObasanjo,reportedaccountsoftribalwarfare,cannibalismandcrimesagainsthumanity.
“Thecommissionheardofsomecapturedpeoplebeingforcedtoeathumanfleshorforcedtodrinkhumanblood…Bothsidestotheconflicthaveviolatedhumanrights.Allegedperpetratorsincludesoldiers,militia,rebelsandcivilians,”thecommissionsaidinitsreport.
“Seriousviolationsofinternationalhumanitarianlawamountingtowarcrimeshavebeencommittedbybothwarringparties.Inthecommission’sview,thecontextinwhichtheseviolationsandcrimeswerecommittedisanon-internationalarmedconflictinvolvinggovernmental(andallied)forcesandSudanPeople’sLiberationMovement-inOpposition(andallied)fighters.”
Duringtheconflicttheadversariessignedsevenceasefireagreements.Theybrokeallofthem,returningtoviolence.Thethreattoregionalsecurityandcostofwarpushedtheinternationalcommunitytourgethepartiestocontinuetalking.
Costlywar
Thecostoftheconflicthasrisentoastronomicalproportions.OneexampleistheUnitedNationsMissioninSouthSudan(UNMISS),whichhas12,500militarypersonnel,1,323civilianpolicepersonneland769civilianstaffmeanttoprovidehumanitarianservicetothedisplaced.Sustainingthislargegrouprequiresatleast$1.1billionayear,accordingtobudgetstatementsontheUNMISSwebsite.
Areport,SouthSudan:theCostofWar,AnEstimationoftheEconomicandFinancialCostsofOngoingConflict,compiledbyEuropeaneconomicconsultancyFrontierEconomics,theCenterforPeaceandDevelopmentStudiesatSouthSudan’sUniversityofJuba,andUganda’sCenterforConflictResolution,putthecostofwarat$1.8billioninlostopportunitiesby2015.Itwarnedthefigurecouldriseto$7.7billionby2020iftheconflictdidn’tstop.
Therearestrongsigns,however,thattheconflictwillbeoverbefore2020.Theagreementonthetransitionalgovernment,forexample,wasmidwifedbytheEastAfricanregionalbloc,theIntergovernmentalAuthorityonDevelopment(IGAD),whosemembersareKenya,Sudan,SouthSudan,Somalia,Djibouti,Ethiopia,EritreaandUganda.