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Massive Capital Flow Unlikely

时间:2024-10-21 01:44:29

IstheongoingChina-U.S.tradewardeterringforeigninvestorsfrominvestinginChina?Thisisaquestionofconcernforeconomistsbothathomeandabroad.StatisticsfromtheStateAdministrationofForeignExchangereleasedonJuly19showedthatthetradewarhasnothamperedinternationalinvestinginChina,converselywillingnesstoinvestinthecountryhasincreased.

Accordingtothestatistics,Chineselendersregisterednetforexpurchasesof$13.8billioninthefirsthalfoftheyear,reversinganetsaleof$93.8billionforthesameperiodlastyear.

Thisshowsinternationalinvestors鈥檆onfidenceinthedevelopmentopportunitiesbroughtaboutbyChina鈥檚continuouslyexpandingopeningup.

Suchconfidenceisalsoreflectedbytheforeigndirectinvestment(FDI)statisticspublishedbytheMinistryofCommerce(MOC).AccordingtotheMOC,thenumberofnewoverseas-fundedcompaniesestablishedinthefirsthalfoftheyearsurged96.6percentfromayearearlierto29,591.FDIinflowgrew4.1percentto$68.32billioninthefirsthalfoftheyear.Thenumberofnewoverseas-fundedenterprisesestablishedinJunealoneincreased92.3percentto5,565.Thefiguresshowthatforeigninvestors鈥檞illingnesstoinvestinChinawasnotaffectedbythetradewar.

Inaddition,foreigninvestmentinChinawasnotaffectedbyarisingdollarexchangeratecausedbytheU.S.FederalReserve鈥檚movetoincreasetheinterestrate.

Sincethesecondquarter,thedollarexchangeratehasreversedthepreviousdownwardtrendandhaskeptincreasing.Asaconsequence,manyemergingeconomieswerethwartedasalargeamountofcapitalflowedbacktotheUnitedStatesinabidtoavoidrisks.

AstheU.S.dollargetsstronger,therenminbiexchangerateisdecreasing.However,thepossibleforeignexchangelosscausedbythelowerexchangeratedidn鈥檛forestallforeigninvestorsfrominvestinginChina.

Whatisthemaindrawofthedomesticmarketforforeigninvestors?Thestabledomesticeconomyhasbolsteredforeigninvestors鈥檆onfidence.China鈥檚economycontinuedastronggrowthmomentumforthefirsthalfoftheyear,withtheGDPexpandingby6.8percentyearonyear.Moreover,thequalityandefficiencyofgrowthwasimprovedasChinapushedforwardindustrialtransformationandupgradingthroughscientificinnovation.Consumptionalsomaintainedastableincrease.Therefore,foreigninvestorsareeyingthepotentialprofitsgeneratedbyChina鈥檚growthprospect.

Thecountry鈥檚continuouslywideningopeninguphasalsoignitedforeigninvestors鈥檋ope.PresidentXiJinpingannouncedaseriesofnewmeasuresaimedatbroadeningChina鈥檚openingupattheBoaoForumforAsiaAnnualConferenceinApril,includingeasingmarketaccessforforeigncapitalandloweringthethresholdforforeigninvestorstoestablishfinancialinstitutions.Themeasuresalsoincludedrelaxedrestrictionsfortheproportionofforeigncapitalinmanufacturingindustriesandamorefavorableinvestmentenvironmentforforeigncapital.Xivowedtoalignwithinternationaleconomicandtraderules,improveprotectionofintellectualpropertyandexpandimports.ThesemeasureshaveensuredmoreconvenienceforforeigncapitaltoinvestinChinainabroaderrangeofareas.

ButwilltheeffectsoftheChina-U.S.tradewarshowinthesecondhalfoftheyear?Itremainstobeseen.Nevertheless,theChineseeconomyhasgainedmoreresiliencegiventhatthecountryhastransferredfrominvestment-drivengrowthtogrowthpoweredbybothinvestmentandconsumption,andfromanexport-orientedeconomytoonethatputsanequalemphasisonexportsandimports.Thestableandhealthymacroeconomicsituationwillenableforeigninvestorstoachieveasteadyincreaseinreturns.Meanwhile,thecontrollablefinancialrisksatlargeandadequateforeignexchangereserveswillruleoutthepossibilityofmassivecapitaloutflow.

Inaddition,Chinahasrolledoutevenmoreattractivemeasuresforexpandingitsopeningup.Forinstance,ChinaunveiledashortenednegativelistforforeigninvestmentinlateJunewhichreducedthenumberofrestrictedmeasuresfrom63to48.Thecountryalsolaunchedaseriesofopening-upmeasuresincludingimprovingtheopeningupofsectorssuchasfinance,infrastructure,transportation,commerce,tradeandlogistics,andeasingaccesstosectorssuchasagriculture,energyandresources.Moreover,thedomesticcapitalmarketwasopenedupfurtherbyapplyingmaininternationalindexestothestockanddebtmarkets.

Withthesepolicies,foreigninvestorsaresettoembracemoreopportunitiesforinvestmentinChina.

CopyeditedbyRebecaToledoCommentsto
   

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