TheauthorisanassistantresearcherwiththeNationalInstituteforSouthChinaSeaStudiesAttheIndo-PacificBusinessForuminWashington,D.C.inlateJuly,U.S.SecretaryofStateMikePompeogaveaspeechtitledAmerica鈥檚Indo-PacificEconomicVisiontopromotetheU.S.Indo-PacificstrategyinitiatedbytheDonaldTrumpadministration.Dayslater,duringhistriptotheEastAsiaSummit(EAS)ForeignMinisters鈥橫eetingandrelatedgatherings,PompeousedtheoccasiontofurtherpeddletheU.S.strategyinthenameofadvancingaso-calledfreeandopenIndoPacificregion.
TheIndo-PacificstrategywasunveiledbyTrumpattheAPECCEOSummitinVietNaminlate2017beforeafewmoredetailswereaddedtotheU.S.NationalSecurityStrategyofthatyear.InJune2018,U.S.SecretaryofDefenseJamesMattispointedoutattheShangri-LaDialoguethattheUnitedStatesplanstobuildmoreofageopoliticalmilitaryalliancethananeconomiconeintheIndo-Pacificregion,andPompeo鈥檚recentreiterationofthestrategyattheEASForeignMinisters鈥橫eetingindicatedthatthevisionisstartingtobecomereality.
Economyandsecurity
TheU.S.-ledIndo-PacificstrategyisareflectionofWashington鈥檚ColdWarmentality.AkeypartoftheinitiativeistoenhanceinteractionamongtheUnitedStates,Japan,AustraliaandIndia,aswellasstrengtheningrelationswithotherU.S.partnersintheregion.TheUnitedStatesregardsChinaasastrategicadversaryandvilifiesitasarevisionistcountry.Atthesametime,ittriestodrawcountriesintoitsalliancewithpromisesofpoliticalandeconomicbenefits,andsmearsChina鈥檚activityintheSouthChinaSeaasen-dangeringpeaceandstabilityintheregion.Throughthesemethods,theUnitedStatesseekstoattractallieswhileatthesametimealienatingChinabyexaggeratingthethreatitposes,withtheultimategoalofcontainingitsrise.
TheU.S.Indo-PacificstrategyalsorevealsanobviousintentiontocountertheChina-proposedBeltandRoadInitiative.Atthebeginningof2018,theUnitedStatesproposeditsinfrastructureinvestmentplaninAsiaduringaquadrilateralmeetingwithJapan,AustraliaandIndia,citingthestronggeo-economicimplicationsoftheBeltandRoadInitiativeandtheneedtorespondtoit.Moreover,rumorsbegantocirculatethattheBeltandRoadInitiativewouldincreasethedebtburdenofparticipatingnations,eventuallysubjectingthemtothepoliticalauthorityofBeijing.
InitsvisionfortheIndo-Pacificregion,theUnitedStatesannouncedthat$113millionwouldbeinvestedinsupportingfoundationalareasofthefuture鈥攖hedigitaleconomy,energyandinfrastructure鈥攁sadownpaymentonitseconomiccommitment.ThoughPompeoclaimedthattheplanexcludesnonationandseekstoworkwitheveryonetopromoteafreeandopenIndo-Pacificregion,China,inthecontextofmountingU.S.protectionismandtheongoingtradewarinitiatedbyTrump,clearlydoesnotmeetthecriteria.
Deep-rootedreasons
ThemaingoaloftheIndo-PacificstrategyistomaintainU.S.hegemonyintheregion.AfterthecollapseoftheSovietUnion,theWesternworldhailedthevictoryofU.S.democracywithhubristicdeclarationsof鈥渢heendofhistory,鈥漚ndthehistoricpatternofconfrontationbetweentwomajorpowerswasreplacedbyU.S.globalhegemony.Inrecentyears,politiciansfromtheUnitedStateshavecometobelievethattheriseofChinachallengestheU.S.-ledinternationalorder.Inotherwords,sincetheendoftheColdWar,theUnitedStateshasregardedChinaasthemajorthreattoitsglobalhegemony,andmeasureshavebeenandarebeingtakentocontainthefurtherdevelopmentoftheEastAsianpowerhouse.
U.S.tradeprotectionismandanti-globalizationalsoseembornofthissamebrandofexclusiveness.UnderthebannerofAmericaFirst,TrumpdecidedtowithdrawfromtheTrans-PacificPartnership(TPP)andothermultilateralarrangements,revealingtotheworldhisviewthattheUnitedStatesisthevictimofmultilateralcooperationandthecurrentfreetradesystem.TheUnitedStateshasusedthispositiontodisturbcurrentinternationalgovernance,therealintentionofwhichistobuildupanewregionalandglobalorderandexcludethosecountriesthatdonotaccordwithU.S.interests,especiallyChina.
APuritanreligiousgeneisoneoftheundertonesofU.S.foreignpolicy,andhasfacilitateditsexpansioneversincetheestablishmentoftheUnitedStatesasanation.Severalyearsago,theUnitedStatesadoptedaninclusivepolicyonChina,acceptingChina鈥檚presenceininternationalstructures,whileexpectingittodevelopintoacountrymoldedinitsimage.ButasChina鈥檚strengthgrows,theUnitedStateshasgrownevermoreconcernedaboutitspower.InviewoftheUnitedStatestoday,engagingwithChinahasnot鈥渟aved鈥漣t,butinsteadmadeitstronger.Thus,China,acountrythatwon鈥檛meetU.S.standardsoffreedomandopenness,nowhastoberestrained.
Inshort,theIndo-PacificstrategyisconceivedonthebasisofdualisticthinkingwiththeaimofexcludingthosecountriesthatthreatenU.S.nationalinterests.Inrealitytheso-calledfreeandopenIndo-Pacificstrategyisneitherfreenoropen.
Regionalinterests
ThekeytothesuccessoftheU.S.IndoPacificstrategyalsodependsonthesupportofthecountriesintheregion,andwhetherthosecountriesaresettobenefitfromit.Thepurposeoftheinitiative,characterizedbyU.S.dominanceandstandards,istoestablishanexclusivebloctocontainChina,butneitheritsmethodsnorgoalsareinlinewiththeinterestsofthecountriesintheregion.Indian,JapaneseandU.S.warshipssailinformationduringthetrilateralnavalexerciseMalabar2018onJune14,shortlyaftertheUnitedStateschangedthenameoftheU.S.PacificCommandtoIndo-PacificCommandVCGTheU.S.-ledprocessofestablishingaregionalorderisnotinthestrategicinterestsoftheothercountriesinvolved.Countriesintheregionhavelongcompetedfordominanceintheconstructionofaregionalorder.IndiahasalwaysviewedtheIndianOceanasitsbackyardandpursuedleadershipinthearea.IfanexclusivecliquedominatedbytheUnitedStatesisformed,IndiawillloseitsflexibilitytomaneuverbetweenChinaandtheUnitedStates.Furthermore,IndiamayhavetoyieldtothedominanceoftheUnitedStates,whichwouldharmitsownstrategicinterests.AttheShangri-LaDialogue,IndianPrimeMinisterNarendraModistressedthattheIndo-Pacificregionismoreofageographicalconceptthanastrategicone,statingthat鈥淚ndiadoesnotseetheIndoPacificregionasastrategyorasacluboflimitedmembers.鈥滻nhisspeech,ModinotonlyexpressedtheimportanceoftheIndianOceantoIndia,butalsosetoutIndia鈥檚sixmajorvisionsfortheIndo-Pacificregion,explicitlyrejectingtheideaofcreatingaclique.AndASEANtoohasalwaysemphasizeditscentralityandindependenceinregionalaffairs.
U.S.standardsalsodonotservetheeconomicanddevelopmentinterestsofcountriesintheregion.A鈥渇ree鈥滻ndo-Pacificregion,accordingtoPompeo,meansthatallnationsareabletoprotecttheirsovereigntyfromcoercionbyothercountries.Atthenationallevel,鈥渇ree鈥漨eansgoodgovernanceandtheassurancethatcitizensareabletoenjoyfundamentalrightsandliberties.Economically,an鈥渙pen鈥滻ndo-Pacificmeansfairandreciprocaltrade,openinvestmentenvironments,transparentagreementsbetweennationsandimprovedconnectivitytodriveregionalties.
While鈥渇reeandopen鈥漨aysoundnice,theimplicitpremiseisthatanynewstructureisstillledbytheUnitedStates.InthePhilippinesforexample,theanti-drugandanti-terrorwarwagedbyPresidentRodrigoDutertetoimproveitsdomesticgovernancehasbeenaccusedbyWashingtonofviolatinghumanrights.TheUnitedStateshasalsoturnedablindeyetotheeffortsofChinaandASEANtomaintainpeaceandstabilityintheSouthChinaSea.ChinaandASEANrecentlyagreedonasingledraftnegotiatingtextoftheCodeofConductontheSouthChinaSea,animportantsteptowardthesettlementofregionalmaritimedisputes.Instead,theUnitedStateshasbeenincreasingitsownmilitaryoperationsinthearea.
EconomicopennessisanotherexcusefortheUnitedStatestopushforwardwithtradeprotectionism,whileitspurposeistoestablishaunilateralU.S.-ledtradesystem.GiventheoverwhelmingeconomicandpoliticaladvantagesoftheUnitedStates,itwouldbedifficultforanyIndo-Pacificnationtobenefitfromsuchasystem.
Inreality,Pompeo鈥檚protectionistandantiglobalpredilectionswereshunnedattheEASForeignMinisters鈥橫eetingbecauseSoutheastAsiancountriesareawarethattheyhavelittletogainfromtheU.S.Indo-Pacificstrategy.TheUnitedStates鈥檞ithdrawalfromtheTPPhasawakeneditsalliestothedamagethattradeprotectionismbrings.Japan,forthisveryreason,haschangeditsattitudetowardtheBeltandRoadInitiativeandexpresseditswillingnesstocooperatemorecloselywithChina.SoutheastAsiannationshavealsochosentomaintaintheirclosecooperationwithChinaundertheframeworkoftheBeltandRoadInitiative.
TheIndo-Pacificstrategyis,inaword,aimedatmaintainingthehegemonyoftheUnitedStatesbypoliticalandeconomicmeansandconstructingaU.S.-dominatedunilateraltradesystem.NotonlywillChinaultimatelybeforcedtoconfrontcontainmentbytheUnitedStates,butothercountriesoftheIndo-Pacificregionlooktobenefitlittlefromsuchanexclusivestrategy.
CopyeditedbyLaurenceCoultonCommentsto