HowChina鈥檚13thFive-YearPlancanbegoodforAfrica
ByBobWekesa
TheannualsessionsofChina鈥檚NationalPeople鈥檚Congress,thetoplegislature,andtheNationalCommitteeoftheChinesePeople鈥檚PoliticalConsultativeConference,thetoppoliticaladvisorybody,heldinBeijinginMarchleftlittledoubtthattheirdeliberationsandresolutionswillhaveglobalramifications.
Sensibilitieshaverevolved360degrees.TherewasatimewhenChina-bashersrelishedaneconomicslowdowninChina.However,asChinagoesthroughthemotionsofrecalibratingitseconomicmodusoperandi,theworldwatchesontenterhooks.OnenowhearsvoicesofoptimismfromaroundtheworldhopingthatChinasuccessfullynavigatesitseconomicreforms.AndAfricaisnoexception.
InfactonecouldarguethatAfricais,incertainrespects,morebeholdentogoodtidingsinChinathanotherpartsoftheworld.Overthepastdecade,theAfricaRisenarrativehasgrownparalleltoChinabecomingthecontinent鈥檚foremosttradingpartner.ThemaindrivingforceforthefasteconomicgrowthontheAfricancontinenthasbeenChina鈥檚appetiteformineralresourcesfromresource-richcountriessuchasSouthAfrica,Zambia,theDemocraticRepublicoftheCongo,SudanandNigeria.
Policyshift
OneofthepolicyshiftsmulledattheGreatHallofthePeopleisamoveawayfromalabor-intensive,exportorientedeconomytowardaconsumerandinnovationdriveneconomy.ThecorollaryisthattherewillbelessdemandforAfricanmineralssuchascopper,ironore,coltan,cobaltandplatinum.
Theeconomicoutlookintheeraofthe13thFiveYearPlan(2016-20)looksgrimforAfricancountriesuntiloneconsiderstheameliorativeplansthatcanhelpbothAfricaandChinaweatherthechoppyheadwinds.
ThesignatureeconomicproposaloftheForumonChina-AfricaCooperation(FOCAC)JohannesburgSummitwasaplanfortheindustrializationofAfrica.Inthisschemeofthings,China鈥檚overcapacitymanufacturingunitswillbesetupinAfricancountries.AlignedtothisindustrializationplanistheprocessingofAfricanrawmineralsintovaluableproductsforworldmarkets.AddontothisthefactthatAfricaboastsanuntappedyouthbulgeinneedofemploymentandyouseepotentialforcelebratingChina鈥檚economicreform,ratherthanmoaningaboutit.
The13thFive-YearPlanisalsobigonopeningup.ForSouthAfrica,itsBRICS(Brazil,Russia,India,China,SouthAfrica)membershipwillbefortunate.Thisisbecausetheopening-upagendawouldlikelybedrivenbygeopoliticalmechanismssuchastheBRICS.IthasalwaysbeenunderstoodthatSouthAfrica鈥檚positionintheBRICSrepresentstheentireAfricancontinent鈥檚.
SilkRoadbeneficiaries
TheforeigndimensionofChina鈥檚opening-upagendaisarticulatedthroughtheBeltandRoadInitiative(theSilkRoadEconomicBeltandthe21stCenturyMaritimeSilkRoad).Africancountriescanexpect(oratleastlobby)tobeincludedinthisgargantuantrade-cum-infrastructural-culturalgeo-strategy.IndicationsarethatsomeAfricancountrieshavealreadybeenincorporatedintotheinitiative.
Allthe10countriesontheEastAfricanseaboardareoftenmentionedasnaturalbeneficiariesoftheBeltandRoadInitiative.SomeofthemarethesiteswhereancientChineseseafarershadlanded.TheseincludeKenya,Somalia,Djibouti,SudanandEgypt,whichareincludedinthecartographicimagesoftheSilkRoad.TheinitiativeisoneoftheareasonwhichSouthAfricaandChinasignedbilateralagreementsinDecember.
ThesearesomeexampleswhyChina鈥檚13thFive-YearPlanshouldbeseenwithoptimism.CA
(TheauthorisapostdoctoralfellowattheUniversityoftheWitwatersrandinSouthAfrica)