GovernorsofCalifornia,NewYorkandWashingtonshowedtheirdisappointmentatthewithdrawalbyfoundingtheU.S.ClimateAlliance,vowingtosupporttheParisAgreement.RepublicangovernorsofMassachusettsandVermontjoinedthecoalition,andthenumberofsupporterskeepsgrowing.
Thedismayedbusinesssectoralsotookimmediateaction.MichaelBloomberg,formerNewYorkMayorandfounderofBloombergPhilanthropies,pledgeduptoUS$15milliontotheUnitedNations,thesameamounttheUNstandstolosefromtheUnitedStates’withdrawalfromtheclimatepact.BusinessgiantssuchasFacebook,GE,Microsoft,andGoogledeclaredaracetowards100percentrenewableenergyusageinthebusinessworld.
Elsewhere,France,Germany,andItalyissuedajointstatementexpressingtheirdisappointmentandreaffirmingtheirpledgetotheParisAgreement.FrenchPresidentMacronslammedTrump’sdecisioninaspeechdeliveredinEnglish,callingon“allscientists,engineers,entrepreneurs,responsiblecitizenswhoweredisappointedbythedecisionofU.S.President”tocomeandworkwithFrance.OnclimatethereisnoplanBbecausethereisnoplanetB,Macronsaid.CanadianPrimeMinisterTrudeaualsoexpressed“disappointment”andvowedtofightagainstclimatechangeandpromoteclean-growtheconomy.
AnEssentialAgreement
TheuproarresultingfromTrump’sdecisionismostlyduetothestatusoftheParisAgreement.Asthefirstglobalaccordreachedonclimateissues,itsymbolizesanarduous,protractedbutupwardprocess,savingmultilateralnegotiationsfromadead-end,rebuildingpoliticalmutualtrust,andredesigningthemechanismofglobalclimategovernance.Itembodiespersistenteffortsmadebyall195partiestotheUNFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC).ItalsomarksanewhighinclimatenegotiationsincetheCopenhagenClimateConferencein2009,andareturntothetopagendaofinternationalpolitics.
ThemostsignificantcontributionoftheParisAgreementistosetaclear-cuttarget–limittemperatureriseto2degreescentigradeabovethepre-industriallevelby2100,andworktowardslimitingtheincreaseto1.5degrees.Anincarnationofconsensusandresolutionofallparties,thetargetsendsanimportantmessage:continuedlow-carbongrowthoftheglobaleconomy.
Theagreementfurtherreflectsthebottom-upmodelthatwasgraduallyestablishedaftertheDurbanClimateConferencein2011.Withthismodel,eachcountryproposesitsownnationalclimateactionplan,calledIntendedNationallyDeterminedContributions(INDCs),andworkstowardsit.TheUNFCCCwillreviewthecollectiveprogresseveryfiveyearstofacilitatethenecessarymeasures,soclosingthegaptothetargetofcappingsurfacetemperatureriseto1.5degreescentigrade.
In2015theU.S.submitteditsINDCtotheUNFCCCsecretariat,promisingtocutemissionsby26percenttoideally28percentofthe2005levelby2025.Astheworld’ssecondemitter,theU.S.,inbreakingitsprom-ise,wasboundtodisruptpoliticalmutualtrustanddampentheambitionsofthecountriesthathavepulledtogetherthroughsomanyyears.
DomesticandGlobalInfluence
DomesticallyexitingtheParisAgreementwillslowdowntheprogressofgreenhousegasreduction.Trumpdenouncedclimatechangeasa“hoax”duringthepresidentialcampaign.Aftertakingoffice,heappointedScottPruitt,aclimatechangeskeptic,chiefoftheEnvironmentProtectionAgency(EPA).PresidentTrumpslashedthebudgetoftheEPAandsignedanadministrativeorderfor“energyindependence.”
TrumpplanstofueltheAmericaneconomybyrevitalizingthetraditionalfossilenergyindustry.Thefactsprove,however,thathewillnotgethisway.In2014,theWhiteHouseissuedanevaluationpointingoutthatclimatechangeasaresultofhumanactivitieshadgreatlyaffectedtheU.S.–thecountryfacesrisingsealevelsandmorefrequentstormsandfloodsinthenorth,andseverewatershortageinthesouth.In2012alone,incidentsrelatedtoclimatechangecausedalossashighasUS$100billion.Anoverdependenceonfossilfuelsisestimatedtobringlargereconomiclossestothecountry,insteadofaso-calledeconomicrevival.U.S.PresidentTrumpleavesthepodiumafterannouncingtheU.S.’swithdrawalfromtheParisAgreement,leavingtheentireworldastounded.
Childrenrepresentingthe197nationswhohavesignedtheParisAgreementcelebrateatthesigningceremonyonApril22,2016.Furthermore,accordingtotheEPA,thecleanenergyprojectsthathavebeendeferred,revisedordiscardedbytheTrumpadministration,ifcarriedoutasplanned,wouldavoid3,600casesofprematuredeathscausedbyairpollutioneveryyear.Fromtheperspectiveofhealth,Trump’songoingfuelplanwillnot“MakeAmericaGreatAgain.”
TheU.S.slowingdownofthereductionofdomesticemissionswillexertanegativeinfluenceontheimplementationoftheParisAgreementglobally.AfterassessingtheINDCsofallcountries,theUNhasfoundthat,evenifeachpartystrictlymeetsitscommitment,thereissomewaytogobeforethetargetofkeepingaglobaltemperaturerisetounder2degreescentigradecanbereached.Closingthegapisoneofthekeyissuesforthereviewingmechanism,accordingtotheParisAgreement.TheU.S.’srenegingonitscommitmentwilldirectlyerodethestrengthofglobalclimateactions.
AstheU.S.federalgovernmentwillhavenosubstantialdeedsinglobalclimategovernanceforthenextfouryears,thefundsithascommittedtodevelopingcountriesarenotanticipatedtoarrive.Thiscouldaffectthepoliticalwillofsome“swing”countriesincombatingclimatechange,andalsolessenthecapacityoftheleastdevelopedcountriestocopewiththreatsfromclimatechangedisasters.
ChinaTakesaFirmStance
WithoutthebackingoftheU.S.,othercountries,includingChina,willstruggletorealizetheclimatechangetarget.However,thetrendofsustainabledevelopmentisirreversible.TheworldwillturntoChinatoleadtheactiononglobalclimatechange.FollowingTrump’swithdrawaldecision,ChinareiterateditsfirmstancetocontinuouslyrampupeffortstotackleclimatechangeandmeetthecommitmentoftheParisAgreement.
Inits13thFive-YearPlandrawnupin2016,Chinaproposedtocontrolitstotalenergyconsumptiontowithin5billiontonsofstandardcoalby2020,andslashenergyconsumptionperunitofGDPandcarbonemissionsonthebasisof2015,representingacleartargetforChina’slow-carbondevelopmentandenergytransformation.Chinahasemergedasaleaderinglobalclimategovernance.IthasengagedinSouth-Southcooperationinclimatechangesince2011,helpingotherdevelopingcountriestopromotetheircapacitiesandconfidenceinthisregard.TheChinesegovernmenthassinceearmarkedanaccumulativeRMB580millionfordevelopingcountries.In2015,itpledgedRMB20billiontosetupaSouth-Southcooperationfundoncli-matechange.
AttheBeltandRoadForumforInternationalCooperationheldinBeijinginMay,ChinadeclaredthatitwouldexpandthescaleoftheSilkRoadFundandSouthSouthCooperationFund,andalsoproposedtoestablishtheInternationalCoalitionforGreenDevelopmentontheBeltandRoad.TheBeltandRoadInitiativewill,underthe“green”principle,advancecooperationinenergyutilization,environmentalprotection,andcopingwithclimatechangeaswellasenhancingtheinfrastructureandeconomicdevelopment.
Adevelopingcountryitself,China’sroleinthefightagainstclimatechangeisoneofgreatsignificancetootherdevelopingcountries.ByfacilitatingcooperationunderframeworkssuchastheBeltandRoadandSouth-Southcooperation,Chinacouldencouragethebusinessandprivatesectorstopromoteexperienceandtechnologiesinsustainabledevelopmenttohelpotherdevelopingcounties.Chinacouldtakepositiveactionstoshowitsresolutioninthisregard,soastoadvancethemultilateralprocessofglobalclimategovernance,promotepolicytransparency,andalongwithothercountries,jointlyconfronttheglobalchallengeofclimatechange.C
LIRUIXINisprogramofficeratGreenovationHub,aChineseNGOonclimateandenvironmentgovernance.
ThemostsignificantcontributionoftheParisAgreementistosetaclear-cuttarget–limittemperatureriseto2degreescentigradeabovethepre-industriallevelby2100,andworktowardslimitingtheincreaseto1.5degrees.
Adevelopingcountryitself,China’sroleinthefightagainstclimatechangeisoneofgreatsignificancetootherdevelopingcountries.